Five Trends Among the Unchurched
Since
1990, the percentage of unchurched adults in America has risen from 30%
to 43% of the population. Even as this segment has grown, has their
profile changed?
With the aid of more than two decades of tracking research—a sort of
cultural time-lapse photography—Barna Group has discovered real and
significant shifts in unchurched attitudes, assumptions, allegiances and
behaviors. We’ve identified five trends in our research that are
contributing to this increase in the churchless of America.
This new study of the unchurched population comes in conjunction with the release of
Churchless, a new book from veteran researchers George Barna and David Kinnaman.
Churchless draws on more than two decades of tracking research and more than 20 nationwide studies of the unchurched.
The research reveals the big picture: Today’s unchurched are much
less likely to come from a church background than ever before.
Furthermore, unchurched people today have different expectations of
church involvement from those of previous decades. These changes are the
result of shifting personal attitudes as well as significant changes in
the broader cultural landscape.
1. Secularization Is on the Rise Nearly
two-fifths of the nation’s adult population (38%) now qualifies as
post-Christian (measured by 15 different variables related to people’s
identity, beliefs and behaviors.
Read more about our post-Christian metric here.).
That includes 10% of Americans who qualify as highly post-Christian.
Another one-quarter is moderately post-Christian (28%). Examined over
time, our research shows that the proportion of highly secularized
individuals is growing slowly but steadily.
In other words, in spite of our “Christian” self-descriptions, more
than one-third of America’s adults are essentially secular in belief and
practice. If nothing else, this helps explain why America has
experienced a surge in unchurched people—and presages a continuing rise
in this population.
Among the churchless, the proportions skew even more heavily:
Overall, more than three-quarters of unchurched adults fall in the
heavy-to-moderate range on the secularization scale. That compares to
about one out of eight among the churched.
As you might expect, the data show some striking generational
differences when it comes to secularization. The pattern is
indisputable: The younger the generation, the more post-Christian it is.
Nearly half of Millennials (48%) qualify as post-Christian compared to
two-fifths of Gen X-ers (40%), one-third of Boomers (35%) and
one-quarter of Elders (28%).
2. People Are Less Open to the Idea of Church
Barna research shows that the unchurched are becoming less responsive to
churches’ efforts to connect with them. For example, conventional
wisdom says the best way to get people to visit a church is to have
friends invite them—and the conventional wisdom is right. The churchless
we interviewed were most open to “a friend of yours inviting you to
attend a local church,” with one-fifth expressing strong interest and
nearly half willing to consider a church based on this factor. An
invitation from a friend is the top-rated way churches can establish
connections with the unchurched.
However, while the conventional wisdom remains true today, the road
ahead shows challenging signs. Barna Group’s trend data raise questions
about the long-term durability of this approach. Twenty years ago,
two-thirds of churchless Americans (65%) were open to being invited to
church by a friend. Today, that percentage has slipped to less than half
(47%).
It’s not only the efficacy of personal invitations that is changing.
Barna’s tracking data stretching back to the 1990s reveal a slow-growing
calcification of unchurched people toward churches. For every outreach
method surveyed, the unchurched are less open to it today than they were
two decades ago. While churchless people continue to show moderate
openness to high-touch, relational connections—pastoral home visits
(27%, down from 34%), a phone call from a church (24%, down from
34%)—they are resistant to other forms of outreach. This is especially
true for advertising, including TV, radio or newspaper (18%, down from
20%), direct mailings (16%, down from 24%) and billboard ads (14%, down
from 21%).
3. Churchgoing Is No Longer Mainstream
Churchgoing is slowly but incontrovertibly losing its role as a
normative part of American life. In the 1990s, roughly one out of every
seven unchurched adults had never experienced regular church attendance.
Today, that percentage has increased to nearly one-quarter. Buried
within these numbers are at least two important conclusions: 1) Church
is becoming increasingly unfamiliar to millions of Americans, and yet 2)
the churchless are still largely comprised of de-churched adults.
This latter conclusion may be hard for many churchgoing Christians to
believe. But it’s true: Even though the cultural trend is toward less
church-friendliness overall, the vast majority of unchurched adults
still have at least some level of personal experience in a church.
4. There Are Different Expectations of Church Involvement
Another intriguing shift among the churchless has to do with their
expectations of church involvement. In the early 1990s, our research
showed that nearly seven out of 10 adults, if they were to visit a
church, would be most interested in attending the Sunday service. Today,
weekend worship services remain the most common entry experience, but
only slightly; now, only 57% of churchless adults say they would be
interested in Sunday worship as their starting point. Today’s unchurched
are more likely to say they are simply not sure, reflecting their
disinterest in churches generally, or are more likely to say they would
prefer attending some activity other than the Sunday service.
A similar shift is afoot in terms of the number of churches they
would attend. The churchless were asked in both 1993 and in 2011 if they
would prefer to be involved in one church or multiple churches in their
area. Two decades ago, even the unchurched expressed some sense of
church loyalty (albeit hypothetical): 85% said they would expect to
attend just one congregation. The recent study reflects a slight
loosening of this potential loyalty, but the more notable shifts are
among those who don’t have a preference and who aren’t sure. Together,
these percentages doubled from 8% to 16%, reflecting growing cultural
indifference to church involvement.
5. There Is Skepticism about Churches’ Contributions to Society
Although many of the churchless hold positive views of churches, a
substantial number also have no idea what Christians have accomplished
in the nation, either for the better or for the worse. When the
unchurched were asked to describe what they believe are the positive and
negative contributions of Christianity in America, almost half (49%)
could not identify a single favorable impact of the Christian community,
while nearly two-fifths (37%) were unable to identify a negative
impact. Of those who could identify one way Christians contribute to the
common good, the unchurched appreciate their influence when it comes to
serving the poor and disadvantaged (22%), bolstering morals and values
(10%) and helping people believe in God (8%). Among those who had a
complaint about Christians in society, the unchurched were least
favorably disposed toward violence in the name of Christ (18%), the
church’s stand against gay marriage (15%), sexual abuse scandals (13%)
and involvement in politics (10%).
Reflecting on Change “Our research suggests a
growing indifference toward churches among the unchurched,” says David
Kinnaman, president of Barna Group and co-editor, with George Barna, of
the new book
Churchless,
from which this data is taken. “The gap between the churched and the
churchless is growing, and it appears that Christian communities of
faith will struggle more than ever to engage church outsiders in their
neighborhood, town or city.”
Kinnaman notes that, while research cannot prove causation, given the
nature of polling and the complex dynamics of cultural and spiritual
change, it can however, point to possible underlying trends. “The
cumulative effect of monumental cultural changes that have swept over us
during recent decades is a widening gap, both real and perceived,
between the churched and the churchless,” he says. “To many faithful
churchgoers, the unchurched seem increasingly alien and difficult to
understand, while the churchless feel ever more comfortable outside a
faith community. Yet while the culture will continue to change, our
calling as the Body of Christ has not and will not.
“How can we recapture an urgency to fulfill the Great Commission
while treating our churchless friends with respect?” Kinnaman asks.
“Wrestling with answers to this question will help prepare a faith
community to engage more meaningfully with unchurched people.”
About the Research The contents of this book are
based on extensive, ongoing, nationwide research conducted by Barna
Group. We used data from 20 surveys, encompassing interviews with more
than 23,000 churched and unchurched adults. The number of unchurched
adults involved was 8,220.
These surveys were done using random digit-dial telephone samples for
landlines and listed cell phone samples for calls to mobile phones.
Each of the studies entailed completing interviews with a minimum of
1,000 randomly chosen adults. The samples were developed to provide a
reliable representation of the national population of people ages 18 or
older living within the 48 continental states. The estimated maximum
sampling error for each survey of 1,000 adults was plus or minus 3.1
percentage points at the 95% confidence level; the maximum sampling
error estimate diminished as sample size increased. The number of
interviews completed with cell-phone owners was based on federal
government estimates of the number of cell-only households
The January 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 surveys also included samples
of approximately 1,000 adults conducted online. Those studies relied on a
research panel called KnowledgePanel®, created and maintained by
Knowledge Networks. It is a probability-based online non-volunteer
access panel. Panel members are recruited using a statistically valid
sampling method with a published sample frame of residential addresses
that covers approximately 97 percent of US households. Sampled
non-Internet households, when recruited, are provided a netbook computer
and free Internet service so they may also participate as online panel
members. KnowledgePanel consists of about 50,000 adult members (ages 18
and older) and includes persons living in cell-only households.
In all of these surveys, regional and ethnic quotas were designed to
ensure that the final group of adults interviewed reflected the
distribution of adults nationwide and adequately represented the three
primary ethnic groups within the United States (those groups that
comprise at least 10 percent of the population: white, black and
Hispanic). Those quotas were based on current US Census Bureau data
regarding the population. Additional quotas were employed to balance the
gender of respondents included in the samples. Upon completion of a
survey, the data were run and the demographic outcomes were compared to
the census statistics on key demographic attributes. In some cases the
full survey database was then statistically weighted to bring the
database into closer approximation of the true population proportions.
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Barna Group
Surveys Included in the Unchurched Database
| study conducted in: |
Total |
Unchurched adult sample |
| January 2008 |
1,004 |
277 |
| May 2008 |
1,003 |
331 |
| July 2008 |
1,005 |
301 |
| August 2008 |
1,005 |
305 |
| October 2008 |
1,014 |
327 |
| November 2008 |
1,198 |
299 |
| July 2009 |
1,003 |
315 |
| September 2009 |
1,004 |
284 |
| January 2010 |
1,008 |
240 |
| February 2010 |
1,005 |
305 |
| August 2010 |
1,002 |
368 |
| December 2010 |
1,022 |
311 |
| January 2011 |
1,622 |
615 |
| August 2011 |
1,007 |
324 |
| January 2012 |
2,025 |
920 |
| March 2012 |
1,020 |
386 |
| April 2012 |
1,062 |
340 |
| May 2012 |
1,009 |
371 |
| November 2012 |
1,008 |
338 |
| January 2013 |
2,083 |
952 |
| January 2014 |
1,024 |
556 |
